We recently discussed the rise in political risk that investors have had to deal with over the past few years. But where is this risk most likely to have a meaningful impact on US investors? The answer, perhaps surprisingly, is East Asia.
That answer may seem odd given the political uncertainties in other parts of the world. Syria has been racked for years by a deadly civil war, Iraq’s government is trying to fight off an insurgency, Russian-linked separatists have been stirring up trouble in Ukraine, and military leaders have claimed power in countries such as Egypt and Thailand. But when it comes to global financial markets, these countries are bit players. Even Russian stocks comprise only about one half of one percent of the value of the global stock market. While it’s true that events in small countries can have an impact—trouble in Syria or Iraq could spread throughout the Middle East and affect global oil supplies, for example—political risks related to larger countries would be more consequential.
Since 2012, a diplomatic conflict has been escalating between China and Japan over a group of uninhabited islands in the South China Sea. China also has territorial disputes with other countries in the region, including Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. So far these conflicts have remained mostly diplomatic rather than military disputes, but there are routinely provocations that threaten further escalation. Last month China stationed an oil rig in territory claimed by Vietnam, leading to riots in Vietnam targeting foreign businesses.
A military conflict between any of these countries could roil financial markets: Japan is the second-largest country in the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF, while China is the ninth-largest. Furthermore, the United States could intervene in such a situation (the US has a security agreement with Japan), making the strife truly global.
The good news is that the probability of a large-scale military conflict is still very low. Yet even if the disputes remain the purview of diplomats, investors could feel some effects: trade between China and Japan has fallen substantially since their territorial squabble metastasized in 2012.