Emerging market stocks haven’t done particularly well in recent years, but Brazilian stocks have done especially poorly. From 2010 through 2013, Brazilian stocks substantially underperformed emerging markets as a whole in each calendar year. So far this year, however, Brazilian stocks have outpaced their emerging market peers. Does this reversal herald a comeback for Brazil’s stock market?
The struggles of Brazilian companies have a number of causes. The country has been battling persistently high inflation, currently above 6% per year. Worker productivity in Brazil has been weak due to factors such as poor infrastructure, a low-quality education system, and inefficient regulations. And declining commodity prices in recent years have hurt the country’s commodity producers.
Often times when a country’s stock market dramatically underperforms over a number of years, stock prices fall so far that they subsequently look cheap. By conventional valuation metrics such as price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio, however, the valuation of Brazil’s stocks isn’t much different from emerging markets overall. Other valuation measures, such as the ratio of the size of the country’s economy to the size of its stock market, suggest that Brazilian stocks may indeed be undervalued, but less so than other emerging markets such as China.
Since Brazilian valuations don’t seem especially attractive, the country’s stock market will likely need something else to provide a boost if it’s going to build on the gains achieved so far this year. Perhaps elections in October will provide the impetus for pro-growth economic reforms, or a stronger global economy will lead to higher commodity prices. If not, the stock market gains so far this year may be an aberration rather than the start of a trend.