The Biggest Political Risks in 2015

2014 was filled with political risk, a concept referring to political changes that can affect the value of an investment. From Russia’s military adventurism in Ukraine to renewed US military involvement in the Middle East, headlines were filled with geopolitical turmoil. But despite all the potential political conflicts, the ones that ended up metastasizing only minimally affected most investors. Even Russia comprises well below 1% of the global stock market. Political conflicts that could have more dramatically affected financial markets—such as China’s territorial disputes in the South China Sea and Scotland’s independence referendum—mostly fizzled out without causing too much financial damage. That could change in 2015 as political risk in Europe intensifies.

Topics: Blog Political Risk Europe

The Possibility of European Deflation

The euro zone has struggled mightily in recent years, with its economy shrinking in both 2012 and 2013. Now it faces a new worry. Inflation in the euro zone has fallen to a 0.4% annualized rate, well below the target of close to 2% set by the European Central Bank (ECB) and close to outright deflation. The dangers of high inflation (a sustained rise in the prices of goods and services throughout the economy) are well known: it reduces the value of people’s savings and can make individuals and businesses reluctant to invest. So shouldn’t deflation (a decline in prices) be beneficial? Not exactly.

Topics: Blog Inflation Europe ECB Deflation

The Rise of Political Risk

One important trend in global financial markets during the last few years has been a rise in political risk, a concept referring to political changes that could affect the value of an investment. The number of events associated with political risk—such as elections, mass protests, and military interventions—has increased by 54% since 2011, according to a study by analysts at Citigroup. This kind of increase has a couple key implications for investors.

Topics: Blog Political Risk Brazil Europe Thailand Ukraine Turkey Russia India Emerging Markets